The National Transport Data Framework

Report by Professor Peter Landshoff (Cambridge University) and Professor John Polak (Imperial College London) on a project for the Department for Transport. emails: [email protected] [email protected] NTDF is designed to be a resource for data owners to deposit descriptions into a central catalogue, so that people can search for data and find data and understand their characteristics. The value of this is to individuals, to commercial organizations, and to public bodies. For example, services that provide better information to travellers will help to make their journey less stressful and persuade them to make more use of public transport. Transport operators need very diverse information to help them plan developments to their services: demographic, geographical, economic etc. And policy makers need a similar range of information to help them decide how to divide their budget and afterwards to evaluate how valuable it has been.This work was supported by the Department for Transport (DfT)

An alternative method to the scrambled Halton sequence for removing correlation between standard Halton sequences in high dimensions

Halton sequences were first introduced in the 1960s as an alternative to pseudo-random number sequences, with the aim of providing better coverage of the area of integration and negative correlation in the simulated probabilities between observations. This is needed in order to achieve variance reduction when using simulation to approximate an integral that does not have a closed-form expression. Such integrals arise in many areas of regional science, for example in the evaluation and estimation of certain types of discrete choice models. While the performance of standard Halton sequences is very good in low dimensions, problems with correlation have been observed between sequences generated from higher primes. This can cause serious problems in the estimation of models with high-dimensional integrals (e.g., models of aspects of spatial choice, such as route or location). Various methods have been proposed to deal with this; one of the most prominent solutions is the scrambled Halton sequence, which uses special predetermined permutations of the coefficients used in the construction of the standard sequence. In this paper, we conduct a detailed analysis of the ability of scrambled Halton sequences to remove the problematic correlation that exists between standard Halton sequences for high primes in the two-dimensional space. The analysis shows that although the scrambled sequences exhibit a lower degree of overall correlation than the standard sequences, for some choices of primes, correlation remains at an unacceptably high level. This paper then proposes an alternative method, based on the idea of using randomly shuffled versions of the one-dimensional standard Halton sequences in the construction of multi-dimensional sequences. We show that the new shuffled sequences produce a significantly higher reduction in correlation than the scrambled sequences, without loss of quality of coverage. Another substantial advantage of this new method is that it can, without any modifications, be used for any number of dimensions, while the use of the scrambled sequences requires the a-priori computation of a matrix of permutations, which for high dimensional problems could lead to significant runtime disadvantages. Repeated runs of the shuffling algorithm will also produce different sequences in different runs, which nevertheless maintain the same quality of one-dimensional coverage. This is not at all the case for the scrambled sequences. In view of the clear advantages in its ability to remove correlation, combined with its runtime and generalization advantages, this paper recommends that this new algorithm should be preferred to the scrambled Halton sequences when dealing with high correlation between standard Halton sequences.

An analysis of parking behaviour using discrete choice models calibrated on SP datasets

Parking policy is an important component of contemporary travel demand management policies. The effectiveness of many parking policy measures depends on influencing parking type choice, so that understanding the factors affecting these choices is of considerable practical importance. Yet, academic interest in this issue has been, at best, intermittent. This paper reports the results of an analysis of parking choice behaviour, based on a stated preference (SP) dataset, collected in various city centre locations in the UK. The analysis advances the state of the art in the analysis of parking choice behaviour by using a mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model, capable of accommodating random heterogeneity in travellers’ tastes and potential correlation structure induced by repeated observations being made of the same individuals. The results of the analysis indicate that taste heterogeneity is a major factor in parking type choice. Accommodating this heterogeneity leads to significantly different conclusions regarding the influence of substantive factors such as access, search and egress time and on the treatment of potential fines for illegal parking. It also has important effects on the implied willingness to pay for timesavings and on the distribution of this willingness in the population. Our analysis also reveals important differences in parking behaviour across different journey purposes, and the models reveal an important locational effect, in such that the results of the analysis vary substantively across the three locations used in the SP surveys. Finally, the paper also discusses a number of technical issues related to the specification of taste heterogeneity that are of wider significance in the application of the MMNL model.

Random Covariance Heterogeneity in Discrete Choice Models

The area of discrete choice modelling has developed rapidly in recent years. In particular, continuing refinements of the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) model family have permitted the representation of increasingly complex patterns of substitution and parallel advances in estimation capability have led to the increased use of model forms requiring simulation in estimation and application. One model form especially, namely the Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL) model, is being used ever more widely. Aside from allowing for random variations in tastes across decision-makers in a Random Coefficients Logit (RCL) framework, this model additionally allows for the representation of inter-alternative correlation as well as heteroscedasticity in an Error Components Logit (ECL) framework, enabling the model to approximate any Random Utility model arbitrarily closely. While the various developments discussed above have led to gradual gains in modelling flexibility, little effort has gone into the development of model forms allowing for a representation of heterogeneity across respondents in the correlation structure in place between alternatives. Such correlation heterogeneity is however possibly a crucial factor in the variation of choice-making behaviour across decision-makers, given the potential presence of individual-specific terms in the unobserved part of utility of multiple alternatives. To the authors' knowledge, there has so far only been one application of a model allowing for such heterogeneity, by Bhat (1997). In this Covariance NL model, the logsum parameters themselves are a function of socio-demographic attributes of the decision-makers, such that the correlation heterogeneity is explained with the help of these attributes. While the results by Bhat show the presence of statistically significant levels of covariance heterogeneity, the improvements in terms of model performance are almost negligible. While it is possible to interpret this as a lack of covariance heterogeneity in the data, another explanation is possible. It is clearly imaginable that a major part of the covariance heterogeneity cannot be explained in a deterministic fashion, either due to data limitations, or because of the presence of actual random variation, in a situation analogous to the case of random taste heterogeneity that cannot be explained in a deterministic fashion. In this paper, we propose two different ways of modelling such random variations in the correlation structure across individuals. The first approach is based on the use of an underlying GEV structure, while the second approach consists of an extension of the ECL model. In the former approach, the choice probabilities are given by integration of underlying GEV choice probabilities, such as Nested Logit, over the assumed distribution of the structural parameters. In the most basic specification, the structural parameters are specified as simple random variables, where appropriate choices of statistical distributions and/or mathematical transforms guarantee that the resulting structural parameters fall into the permissible range of values. Several extensions are then discussed in the paper that allow for a mixture of random and deterministic variations in the correlation structure. In an ECL model, correlation across alternatives is introduced with the help of normally distributed error-terms with a mean of zero that are shared by alternatives that are closer substitutes for each other, with the extent of correlation being determined by the estimates of the standard deviations of the error-components. The extension of this model to a structure allowing for random covariance heterogeneity is again divided into two parts. In the first approach, correlation is assumed to vary purely randomly; this is obtained through simple integration over the distribution of the standard deviations of the error-terms, superseding the integration over the distribution of the error-components with a specific draw for the standard deviations. The second extension is similar to the one used in the GEV case, with the standard deviations being composed of a deterministic term and a random term, either as a pure deviation, or in the form of random coefficients in the parameterisation of the distribution of the standard deviations. We next show that our Covariance GEV (CGEV) model generalises all existing GEV model structures, while the Covariance ECL (CECL) model can theoretically approximate all RUM models arbitrarily closely. Although this also means that the CECL model can closely replicate the behaviour of the CGEV model, there are some differences between the two models, which can be related to the differences in the underlying error-structure of the base models (GEV vs ECL). The CECL model has the advantage of implicitly allowing for heteroscedasticity, although this is also possible with the CGEV model, by adding appropriate error-components, leading to an EC-CGEV model. In terms of estimation, the CECL model has a run-time advantage for basic nesting structures, when the number of error-components, and hence dimensions of integration, is low enough not to counter-act the gains made by being based on a more straightforward integrand (MNL vs advanced GEV). However, in more complicated structures, this advantage disappears, in a situation that is analogous to the case of Mixed GEV models compared to ECL models. A final disadvantage of the CECL model structure comes in the form of an additional set of identification conditions. The paper presents applications of these model structures to both cross-sectional and panel datasets from the field of travel behaviour analysis. The applications illustrate the gains in model performance that can be obtained with our proposed structures when compared to models governed by a homogeneous covariance structure assumption. As expected, the gains in performance are more important in the case of data with repeated observations for the same individual, where the notion of individual-specific substitution patterns applies more directly. The applications also confirm the slight differences between the CGEV and CECL models discussed above. The paper concludes with a discussion of how the two structures can be extended to allow for random taste heterogeneity. The resulting models thus allow for random variations in choice behaviour both in the evaluation of measured attributes C as well as the correlation across alternatives in the unobserved utility terms. This further increases the flexibility of the two model structures, and their potential for analysing complex behaviour in transport and other areas of research.

Development and Application of an Activity Based Space-Time Accessibility Measure for Individual Activity Schedules

Accessibility is an important aspect of human existence impacting on our notion of society equity and justice. It plays an important role in a number of existing theories of spatial and travel behaviour in addition to affecting the rate and the pattern of land-use development. However despite the importance of the notion of accessibility, the accessibility measures, which have traditionally been used to quantify accessibility, have tended to be relatively poorly defined, excluding a wide range of observed forms of travel behaviour. This has ramifications for the implicit assumption underpinning the use of accessibility measures, namely that of a direct correlation between the measure of accessibility and individual travel behaviour. In this paper a hitherto unknown family of space-time route benefit measures are developed and utilised to derive an associated family of disaggregate activity based space-time utility accessibility measures. Applicable to individual activity schedules, these space-time activity accessibility measures implicitly acknowledge that travel is a derived demand. The paper commences with an outline of the limitations and primary assumptions present within traditional accessibility measures. The paper proceeds to provide a brief review of space-time user benefit measures highlighting their principle assumptions. Existing space-time locational benefit measures are subsequently extended to incorporate more realistic temporal constraints on activity participation and the perceived user benefit. The improved locational benefit measures incorporate a variety of factors including the utility an individual derives from activity participation, individual income, space-time constraints. In addition travel time, route delay and schedule disutility components such as the facility and activity wait times associated with early arrival are incorporated, in addition to late start time penalties associated with late commencement of an activity. The improved space-time locational benefit measure is subsequently applied to activity schedules incorporating a series of multiple linked activities. The paper subsequently demonstrates how the resulting user benefit measure can be shown to be part of a broader family of space-time route benefit measures, which despite their theoretical attractiveness have hitherto not been utilised by researchers. An associated family of space-time utility accessibility measures are subsequently developed and the paper proceeds to highlight how stochastic frontier models utilised in conjunction with existing travel/activity diary datasets can be utilised to operationalise the proposed measure of accessibility. The proposed family of accessibility measures are implemented within a point based spatial framework encompassing detailed spatially referenced land-use transportation network encompassing public transport, cycle, walk and car transport modes. Several practical examples are presented of the proposed family of accessibility measures in use and in particular demonstrate the strength and potential of the methodology in developing a wide range of transport-land-use policies. Examples are presented of the use of the methodology in developing new/improved transport links and services, the provision of additional land-use facilities/opportunities, extended opening of facilities/opportunities, the identification of transport related social exclusion, the development of equitable land-use transport schemes and policies as well as the development of flexible working policies. The paper concludes with a summary highlighting the principle benefits and properties of the proposed family of accessibility measures in addition to highlighting potential areas of future research.

Taste Heterogeneity and Substitution Patterns in Models of the Simultaneous Choice of Activity Timing and Duration

The recent growth of interest in activity-based methods has focused particular attention on travellers’ decision making regarding the timing and duration of their participation in activities. However, to date these two dimensions of activity participation have been largely treated separately. It is clear, however, that in general, the benefit that an individual derives from participating in an activity will depend inter alia both upon the time at which the activity is undertaken and the amount of time devoted to the activity. Moreover, it is also clear that this benefit will also depend on a wide range of other factors such as the quality of the activity opportunities available at particular destinations and the intensity with which activities are undertaken. Since these factors are inherently difficult or impossible to completely characterise or measure via conventional travel or time use data sources, it is likely that such decisions will also be characterised by significant unobserved heterogeneity. Based on earlier theoretical work by the authors, this paper proposes a model for the simultaneous choice of the timing and duration of activities and associated travel and uses data from a stated preference experiment to estimate the parameters of this model. The first section of the paper provides a brief review of the existing literature on activity timing and duration choice. The second section introduces the theoretical approach, which assume that the marginal utility derived from activities encompasses two distinct components; one derived from the duration of activity involvement and the other derived from activity participation at a particular time-of-day. A number of alternative additive and multiplicative specifications are introduced and their properties are explored. The third section briefly describes the stated preference data, which was collected in a survey undertaken in London in which respondents were presented with a number of scenarios in which they were asked to choose between alternative tours involving a single destination activity. The timing and duration both of the destination activity and the associated travel varied across scenarios. The fourth section discusses the empirical specification and estimation of the model and presents the estimation results. This uses an error-components formulation of the mixed multinomial logit model to account both for unobserved heterogeneity in tastes and for heteroskedascity and complex substitution patterns amongst activity alternatives. Particular attention is given to the use of advanced optimisation techniques needed to estimate the non-linear utility function expressing individuals’ timing and duration preferences.The fifth section discusses the significance of the results and their potential application to a number of practical transport planning problems including the prediction of user response to travel demand management policies and accessibility planning. The paper closes with some overall conclusions and a discussion of future research directions.

Highway Infrastructure Investment and Regional Employment Growth: Dynamic Panel Regression Analysis

A number of macro-level studies attempting to establish the statistical link between public investment in highway infrastructure and employment have applied econometric techniques to estimate the effect of highways while controlling for the effects associated with other factors. Unfortunately, direct use of empirical findings from these historic and recent studies, in shaping transport policy and supporting particular investment decisions, has been rather limited by mixed and inconclusive evidence in the literature. Apart from the common differences among these studies in scope and methodology, another possible reason for the contradictory evidence is that much of the previous work has generally suffered from several methodology drawbacks. In many studies, for instance, several important determinants of employment growth are omitted, and the choices of control variables included in the estimated equations generally are not based on theory. Those studies based solely on cross-sectional data also typically do not account for unobserved regional heterogeneity that may explain spatial differences in employment changes. Moreover, the possibility that the causal relationship between transportation investment and economic growth could work in both directions is generally ignored. This paper attempts to shed some light on this controversy by analysing the effect of highway investment on county-level employment in the State of North Carolina, United States. We derive a reduced from model of equilibrium employment that considers the effects of highways and other potential factors on the supply and demand for labour. Given the potential for lagged responses of the labour market to any exogenous shock, we assume a partial adjustment process for actual employment in our empirical model. A panel data set for 100 North Carolina counties from 1985 to 1997 is used in order to control for unobserved county and time specific effects using panel regression techniques. We also address the causality issue by the use of a two-stage least squares procedure with an instrumental variable. Our main results are that the employment effect of highway infrastructure depends critically on model specifications considered, and failure to account for the dynamics of employment adjustment could lead to an upward bias in the estimated effect of highways.

Modelling departure time and mode choice

As a result of increasing road congestion and road pricing, modelling the temporal response of travellers to transport policy interventions has rapidly emerged as a major issue in many practical transport planning studies. A substantial body of research is therefore being carried out to understand the complexities involved in modelling time of day choice. These models are contributing substantially to our understanding of how travellers make time-of-day decisions (Hess et al, 2004; de Jong et al, 2003). These models, however, tend to be far too complex and far too data intensive to be of use for application in large-scale modelling forecasting systems, where socio-economic detail is limited and detailed scheduling information is rarely available. Moreover, model systems making use of the some of the latest analytical structures, such as Mixed Logit, are generally inapplicable in practical planning, since they rely on computer-intensive simulation in application just as well as in estimation. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to describe the development of time-period choice models which are suitable for application in large-scale modelling forecasting systems. Large-scale practical planning models often rely on systems of nested logit models, which can incorporate many of the most important interactions that are present in the complex models but which have low enough run-times to allow them to be used for practical planning. In these systems, temporal choice is represented as the choice between a finite set of discrete alternatives, represented by mutually exclusive time-periods that are obtained by aggregation of the actual observed continuous time values. The issues that face modellers are then: -how should the time periods be defined, and in particular how long should they be? -how should the choices of time periods be related to each other, e.g. is the elasticity for shorter shifts greater than for longer shifts? -how should time period choice be placed in the model system relative to other choices, such as that of the mode of travel? These questions cannot be answered on a purely theoretical basis but require the analysis of empirical data. However, there is not a great deal of data available on the relevant choices. The time period models described in the paper are developed from three related stated preference (SP) studies undertaken over the past decade in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Because of the complications involved with using advanced models in large-scale modelling forecasting systems, the model structures are limited to nested logit models. Two different tree structures are explored in the analysis, nesting mode above time period choice or time period choice above mode. The analysis examines how these structures differ by data set, purpose of travel and time period specification. Three time period specifications were tested, dividing the 24-hour day into: -twenty-four 1-hour periods; -five coarse time-periods; -sixteen 15-minute morning-peak periods, and two coarse pre-peak and post-peak periods. In each case, the time periods are used to define both the outbound and the return trip timings. The analysis shows that, with a few exceptions, the nested models outperform the basic Multinomial Logit structures, which operate under the assumption of equal substitution patterns across alternatives. With a single exception, the nested models in turn show higher substitution between alternative time periods than between alternative modes, showing that, for all the time period lengths studied, travellers are more sensitive to transport levels of service in their choice of departure time than in choice of mode. The advantages of the nesting structures are especially pronounced in the 1-hour and 15-minute models, while, in the coarse time-period models, the MNL model often remains the preferred structure; this is a clear effect of the broader time-periods, and the consequently lower substitution between time-periods.